Question 92. General indicators of the standard of living of the population. Housing Provision and Housing Quality Indicators The main generalizing indicator of the population's standard of living is the Human Development Index (HDI). This index is a composite

The most important tool for long-term forecasting of socio-economic social development is planning and analysis population growth. This indicator is most often used to calculate the size of its labor resources, including the volume of needs for them.

When analyzing the state demographic situation, two main indicators are used:

• Mechanical (migration) growth,
• natural increase.

Shows the difference between the number of deaths and births of people for the period under consideration.

For maximum accuracy of the data in the calculations, statistics are used, which make it possible to track the slightest changes. Special statistical bodies constantly monitor birth and death rates, which have a documentary basis.

Population Growth Formula

Population growth is determined summing up two indicators:

• The rate of natural increase, which is the difference between births and deaths over a certain period;
• An indicator of migration growth, reflecting the difference between the number of people who arrived in a certain territory and the number who left for the period under review.

Population growth is the difference between the current level of the demographic situation and the level of an earlier period.

The unit of account can be a period of time of a long-term (from 5 to 100 years) and short-term (from several days to 3-5 years) character.

Natural population growth formula

Natural increase is the difference between births and deaths. Moreover, if the birth rate is higher than the death rate, then we can talk about expanded reproduction of the population. If the death rate is higher than the birth rate, then there is a demographic decline and narrowed reproduction of the population.

There is an absolute and relative formula for natural population growth.

Natural population growth formula in absolute terms can be determined by subtracting from the volume of reproduction of the end and beginning of the period.

This formula looks like this:

EP \u003d P - C

Here, EP is the natural increase,

P is the number of people born,

C is the number of deaths.

A relative assessment of natural growth is carried out by calculating the coefficients. In this case, the absolute value is the total number of inhabitants. The formula of natural population growth in relative terms is calculated as the difference between born and deceased citizens for a certain period (that is, the absolute value of natural increase). This difference is then divided by the total population.

Mon. = Pabs. / CHN

Here Mon. - relative indicator natural population growth

Pabs. - the absolute rate of population growth, calculated as the difference between births and deaths),

PN is the population.

Examples of problem solving

EXAMPLE 1

this page is under construction

Statistical indicators of fertility

Birth rate indicators

The simplest conventional periodic characteristic of fertility, which requires only data on the age structure of the population, is the coefficient (or index) of children, i.e. the ratio of the number of children aged 0-14 years to the number of women of reproductive (15-49 years) age. The birth rate can be used to characterize fertility when data on the number of births are either not available or unreliable. The fertility rate is calculated using the following formula: C / W R ​​= C h 0 − 4 W 15 − 49 (\displaystyle C/WR=(\frac (Ch_(0-4))(W_(15-49))))

C/WR - fertility rate; Сh 0-4 - the number of children aged 0-4 years; W 15-49 - number of women of reproductive age

This indicator can be used for a primary estimate of the birth rate, especially in countries with poorly established vital records, but with fairly accurate census data. It is also useful for making initial comparisons of fertility rates across countries: the fertility rate is high where fertility is high and low in countries where fertility is low. The disadvantage of the fertility rate is that it is extremely sensitive to fluctuations in infant and child mortality and to underestimation of the child population. Therefore, its use in countries with high infant and child mortality and unreliable statistics may lead to incorrect estimates and conclusions.

The simplest indicator is total fertility rate. The crude birth rate is calculated as the ratio of the absolute number of births to the average population over a period, usually a year. This ratio is multiplied by 1000 for clarity, i.e. the total fertility rate is measured in ppm (‰): C B R = B P ∗ T ∗ 1000 (\displaystyle CBR=(\frac (B)(P*T))*1000)

CBR - total fertility rate B - absolute number of births per year P - average population T - period length

Special birth rate is the ratio of the number of live births (usually per calendar year) to the average (average annual) number of women aged 15 to 50, usually expressed in ppm (‰): F 15 − 49 = N W 15 − 49 ∗ 1000 (\displaystyle F_(15-49)=(\frac (N)(W_(15-49)))*1000)

F 15-49 - special fertility rate N - number of children aged 0-4 years W 15-49 - average annual number of women aged 15-49 years

The special birth rate has some advantages and, of course, disadvantages compared to the general birth rate. The advantages are that this coefficient, of course, does not depend on the sex structure of the population and, to a lesser extent than the general coefficient, depends on the age structure. The proportion of women aged 15-49 in the total population fluctuates different countries and territories from 20 to 30%. The disadvantage of the special coefficient is the same: the dependence of the value on the characteristics of the age structure within the female reproductive contingent (in the age range from 15 to 50 years), and not on the entire population. Although this dependence is four times smaller than the general coefficient, its distorting influence is enough to make the special birth rate also of little use in demographic analysis. Experts use this indicator very rarely.

Age-specific fertility rates

The next step forward in moving towards better fertility rates is the calculation of age-specific fertility rates. The age coefficient is the ratio of the annual number of births to mothers of age "x" to the number of all women of this age:

F x = N x W x ∗ 1000 (\displaystyle F_(x)=(\frac (N_(x))(W_(x)))*1000)

F x - age-specific fertility rate N x - number of women born to women aged "x" W x - number of women aged "x"

If we ignore multiple births (which make up a small percentage of the total number of births), then we can consider the birth rate as the proportion of women who gave birth in a given year to the total number of women of the corresponding age.

Age coefficients are calculated for one-year and five-year age groups. The most detailed - one-year age coefficients provide the best opportunities for analyzing the state and dynamics of fertility. However, they are subject to the deformation of data on the age structure of the female reproductive contingent under the influence of age accumulation. Therefore, when very high accuracy is not required, researchers make do with five-year age coefficients, which, although slightly affected by fluctuations in the age structure within five-year age groups, still provide quite good opportunities for fertility analysis.

Marriage and illegitimate births

Marital status is the most important factor in the birth rate. Consequently, the special and age coefficients of marital and extramarital fertility give a better idea of ​​the state and dynamics of fertility than ordinary coefficients that are not differentiated by the marital status of women.

Special Marriage Fertility Rate: m F x = m N m W 15 − 49 ∗ 1000 (\displaystyle ^(m)F_(x)=(\frac (^(m)N)(^(m)W_(15-49)))*1000 )

M F x - special marital fertility rate m N - number of births to married women m W 15-49 - total number of married women aged 15-49

Marriage birth rates are mainly calculated from sample surveys only.

total fertility rate

The total fertility rate is calculated by summing the age-specific fertility rates and multiplying them by the length of each age interval in whole years (for one-year rates, the multiplier is 1, for five-year rates, 5, etc.). The sum is eventually divided by 1000, i.e. The indicator is expressed per woman on average:

F t o t a l = n ∗ ∑ 15 49 ∗ F x ∗ 0.001 (\displaystyle F_(total)=n*\sum _(15)^(49)*F_(x)*0(,)001)

Ftotal - total fertility rate n - length of the age interval (with the same length of the interval, it can be taken out of the sign of the sum, i.e. first add the coefficients, and then multiply the sum of the coefficients by the length of the age interval once. If the intervals are different in length (rarely, but it happens), then it is necessary to multiply each coefficient separately by the length of the age interval corresponding to it) F x - age coefficients

The total fertility rate is one of the summary, final indicators. The total fertility rate shows how many children, on average, one woman gives birth to throughout her life from 15 to 50 years, provided that throughout the reproductive period of the life of a given generation, age-specific fertility rates in each age group remain unchanged at the level of the calculation period.

Total Fertility Rate Scale

(according to V.A. Borisov and B.Ts. Urlanis)

fertility- the process of childbearing in a specific population of people for a certain period of time.
Speaking of fertility human society, it should be remembered that in this case it is determined not only by biological, but also by socio-economic processes, living conditions, life, traditions, religious attitudes and other factors.

live birth is the complete expulsion or removal from the body of the mother of the product of conception, regardless of the duration of pregnancy, which, after such separation, breathes or shows other signs of life (heartbeat, pulsation of the umbilical cord or obvious movements of voluntary muscles, regardless of whether the umbilical cord has been cut and whether the placenta has separated).

viable(according to WHO definition) a child is considered to be born with a period of 20-22 weeks of pregnancy and later with a body weight of 500 g or more, in which at least one of the signs of live birth is determined after birth.

Stillbirth is the death of the product of conception before its complete expulsion or removal from the mother's body, regardless of the duration of pregnancy. The death of the fetus is indicated by the absence of breathing or any other signs of life, such as heartbeat, pulsation of the umbilical cord, or voluntary muscle movements.

According to the law, within a month from the date of birth, all children must be registered with the registry office at the place of their birth or the place of residence of their parents. Birth registration of a found child, whose parents are unknown, is carried out within 7 days from the date of his stay at the request of the guardianship and guardianship authority, the administration of the children's institution where the child is placed, the territorial body of the Ministry of Internal Affairs or the person with whom the child is located. Simultaneously with the application, documents (act, protocol, certificate) indicating the time, place and circumstances of the discovery of the child and a certificate from the medical institution on the age of the child are submitted to the registry office.

The main document for registering a child in the registry office is the "Medical birth certificate" (f. 103 / y-08). It is issued upon discharge of the mother from the hospital by all health care institutions in which the birth took place, in all cases of live birth. In the case of a home birth, the "Medical Birth Certificate" is issued by the institution medical worker who took birth. In case of multiple births, the "Medical Birth Certificate" is filled out for each child separately.

In settlements and medical institutions where medical personnel work, the "Medical Birth Certificate" must be drawn up by a doctor. In rural areas, in health care facilities where there are no doctors, it can be issued by the midwife or paramedic who delivered the baby.

In the event of the death of a child, before the mother leaves the maternity hospital or other medical institution, the “Medical Birth Certificate” must also be filled out, which is provided along with the “Certificate of Perinatal Death” to the registry office.

An entry on the issuance of a "Medical birth certificate" indicating its number and date of issue must be made in the "History of the development of the newborn" (f. 097 / y), in the case of a stillbirth - in the "History of childbirth" (f. 096 / y). To account for the birth rate, calculate a number of demographic indicators, it is extremely important to determine whether the child was born alive or dead, the gestational age, full-term, etc.

Health care institutions register in medical records all those born alive and dead, having a body weight at birth of 500 g or more. The following are subject to registration in the registry office:

• born alive with a body weight of 1000 g or more (or, if birth weight is unknown, with a body length of 35 cm or more or a gestational age of 28 weeks or more), including newborns weighing 1000 g in multiple births;
• born alive with a body weight of 500 to 999 g are also subject to registration with the registry office as live births in cases where they lived more than 168 hours after birth.

premature children born at a gestational age of less than 37 weeks and showing signs of prematurity are considered.

full-term children born at a gestational age of 37 to 40 weeks are considered.

Post-term children born at a gestational age of 41 to 43 weeks and showing signs of overmaturity are considered. In addition, the concept prolonged or physiologically prolonged pregnancy, which lasts more than 42 weeks and ends with the birth of a full-term, functionally mature child without signs of overmaturity and danger to his life.

Due to the peculiarities of obstetric tactics and nursing of children born at different gestational ages, it is advisable to allocate the following intervals:

• premature birth at 22-27 weeks (fetal weight from 500 to 1000 g);
• premature birth at 28-33 weeks (fetal weight 1000-1800 g);
• premature birth at 34-37 weeks (fetal weight 1900-2500 g).

The highest percentage of preterm birth occurs at 34-37 weeks of gestation (55.3%); in terms of pregnancy 22-27 weeks, abortions occur 10 times less often (5.7%).

Risk factors for preterm birth are both socio-demographic (unsettled family life, low social level, age younger than 20 or older than 35 years), and medical (earlier abortions and premature births, spontaneous miscarriages, urinary tract infections, inflammatory diseases of the genitals, endocrine disorders).

Every year more than 40 thousand births registered in Russian Federation are premature. The proportion of normal births in 2002 was 31.7% (2000 - 31.1%).

total fertility rate- is calculated as the ratio of the absolute number of births to the average population over a period, usually a year. For clarity, this ratio is multiplied by 1000 and measured in ppm.

The value of the total fertility rate depends not only on the intensity of the birth rate (the average number of live births), but also on demographic and other characteristics, primarily on the age-sex and marriage structures of the population. Therefore, it gives only the very first, approximate idea of ​​the birth rate. To eliminate the influence of these demographic structures on fertility rates, other, more precise indicators are calculated.

It is calculated in relation to the number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years).

The general and special fertility rates are related by the ratio:

Age-specific birth rates (fertility) measure the intensity of fertility in a specific age group of women and are calculated as the ratio of the number of births in women of a certain age group to the average annual number of women in this age group.

When calculating the special and age-specific birth rates (fertility), it is customary to refer all births to mothers under 15 years of age at the age of 15 years or at the interval of 15-19 years. Births to mothers whose age exceeds 49 years are attributed respectively to the age of 49 years or to the interval of 44-49 years. This does not reduce the accuracy of determining the age-specific coefficients for these ages due to the very small number of births in the youngest (under 15 years old) and in the oldest (50 years and older) ages. However, if the purpose of the study is to study the birth rate in these age groups, then, of course, the age-specific coefficients for them are calculated according to the general rule.

Age-specific fertility rates (fertility) make it possible to analyze the level and dynamics of the intensity of fertility in a conditional generation, free from the influence of the age structure of both the population as a whole and women of reproductive age. This is their advantage over the general and special fertility rates. However, the inconvenience of age-specific coefficients is that their number is too large: if these coefficients are calculated for one-year intervals, then there are 35 of them, and if for 5-year-old intervals, then 7. To overcome this difficulty and be able to analyze the level and dynamics of fertility using one indicator, also free from the influence of the age structure, the so-called cumulative fertility rates are calculated, of which the total fertility rate (fertility) has received the greatest fame and distribution.

Total fertility rate (fertility) characterizes the average number of births per woman in a hypothetical generation over her entire life, while maintaining the existing levels of fertility at each age, regardless of mortality rates and changes in age composition. The value of the total fertility rate (fertility) above 4.0 is considered high, less than 2.15 - low. Thus, in 2002, the total birth rate (fertility) in the Russian Federation amounted to 1.32 children per woman, which does not provide even a simple replacement of generations.

Partial birth rates are calculated to remove the influence of other demographic structures. In particular, where illegitimate births occupy a significant place among all births, they calculate

• marriage birth rate (fertility)
• extramarital birth rate (fertility)

In 2002, 411.5 thousand children were born in the Russian Federation out of a registered marriage, or 29.5% of the total number of births.

In addition to the age of the mother, in the analysis of fertility, the number of children that a woman gave birth to in the past, or the order (order) of birth, is important. In demography, the following birth rates are used in order of birth for a conditional generation:

• special birth rate (fertility) in order of birth;
• age-specific fertility rate by birth order.

It is a very informative indicator in the analysis of the process of fertility decline, since among the population with low fertility, the values ​​of this coefficient for higher birth orders are almost zero.

Complements the previous indicator, taking into account the age structure of women of reproductive age.

*According to the WHO, reproductive (childbearing) age is considered to be 15-45 years.

Brief theory

The population is one of the most important objects of statistical study. The tasks of population statistics include the study and analysis of the number, distribution, composition, reproduction and dynamics of the population, the determination of the prospective size of the entire population and its individual contingents. The main sources of population data are population censuses and current records of natural and migratory movements of the population.

The composition of the population is studied by demographic and socio-economic characteristics: gender, age, nationality, sources of livelihood, occupation, level of education, etc. For this, the relative values ​​of the structure (shares, specific weights) and coordination (indicators of the ratio of the number of men and women, boys and girls in the annual number of births).

The processes of birth and death that provide natural population growth, as well as the processes of marriage and divorce are called natural population movement. The movement of people within a country is called migratory movement of the population.

The initial characteristic of the natural and migration movement of the population are absolute values. The absolute numbers of births and deaths, marriages and divorces, arrivals and departures are derived from current records. Absolute indicators of population movement are interval indicators, they are calculated for certain periods of time, for example, for a month, for a year, etc. Highest value have annual numbers of the studied events.

Absolute Vital Rates This:

If the number of births exceeds the number of deaths, the natural increase is positive, and if the number of deaths is greater than the number of births, the natural increase is negative.

Absolute indicators of the migration movement of the population This:

To characterize the reproduction and migration of the population, a number of general demographic coefficients are used (fertility, mortality, natural increase, marriage, divorce, arrival, departure, migration increase, etc.), which are calculated as the ratio of the corresponding number of demographic events (total absolute population growth, the number of births, deaths, natural population growth, the number of registered marriages, divorces, the number of arrivals, departures, migration population growth, etc. during the calendar period) to the corresponding average population.

total fertility rate calculated by dividing the number of live births in a year by the average annual population - Shows how many people are born during a calendar year on average for every 1000 people in the present population.

Crude death rate is calculated similarly by dividing the number of deaths in a year by the average annual population. Shows how many people die during a calendar year on average for every 1000 people in the present population.

Natural increase rate(departed). Shows the amount of natural increase (decrease) of the population during the calendar year, on average, per 1000 people in the present population.

Along with the general coefficients, that is, calculated for the entire population, for a more detailed description of the reproduction of the population, private (special) coefficients are determined, which, in contrast to the general coefficients, are calculated per 1000 people of a certain age, gender, professional or other group of the population.

So, when studying fertility, a special fertility rate is widely used - fertility rate, fertility:

- the number of live births per year;

The average annual number of women aged 15-49 years.

There is a clear relationship between general and special coefficients, therefore, through special coefficients, you can calculate the general ones. Thus, the total fertility rate is equal to the product of the special birth rate and the share of women aged 15-49 in the entire population.

Of great importance is the calculation of age-specific fertility rates (that is, fertility rates for certain age groups of women) and the total fertility rate, which characterizes the average number of children born to a woman in her entire life.

Vitality factor shows the ratio between fertility and mortality, characterizes the reproduction of the population. If the vitality coefficient is less than 1, then the population of the region is dying out, if it is higher than 1, then the population is increasing.

Turnover ratio- the number of births and deaths per 1000 people per year on average:

Population reproduction efficiency coefficient(as a share of natural increase in the total turnover of the population):

Total marriage rate calculated by the formula:

where is the number of marriages

General divorce rate:

- number of divorces

Marriage Stability Coefficient:

Migration intensity indicators characterize the frequency of cases of change of place of residence in the total population over a certain period. The following general characteristics of the intensity of migration per 1000 inhabitants per year are most often used:

arrival rate:

Retirement rate:

General coefficient of migration intensity(coefficient of mechanical population growth):

Migration turnover intensity coefficient:

Migration efficiency ratio:

General demographic coefficients have a significant drawback: their value is influenced not only by the intensity of demographic processes, but also by the characteristics of the age, sex and other structure of the population for which they are calculated. For example, of all the general coefficients of natural movement of the population, only the mortality rate gives a characteristic of the process taking place in the entire population, since all people are mortal. The denominator of the general fertility, marriage and divorce rates includes the part of the population that in the period under study did not generate demographic events reflected in the numerator, for example, children. Due to these reasons, general coefficients are suitable only for the most rough assessment of the intensity of the relevant processes, and for a deeper analysis, to characterize the reproduction of the population and assess the demographic situation in the region under study, it is necessary to use special and private indicators that are less dependent on the influence of structural factors.

Problem solution example

The task

The average annual population in the region was 20 million people, of which 2% are women aged 15-49 years. During the year, 12,000 people were born, 14,000 people died, including 182 children under one year of age, 2,000 arrived at their permanent place of residence, and 1,000 left.

Define:

1. Total fertility rate.
2. fertility rate.
3. Crude death rate.
4. Child mortality rate.
5. absolute population growth.
6. coefficient of natural growth.
7. The coefficient of mechanical growth.

If you do not need help now, but may need it in the future, then in order not to lose contact,