The mechanical movement of the population - what is this concept and how is it characterized? Relative indicators of the mechanical movement of the population The coefficient of the mechanical movement of the population formula.
Population is a concept better known as migration. It is a process in which there is a change in the place of residence of social groups or individuals, expressed in their movement to another country, geographical area or region.
Mechanical population movement in some countries
The level of migration and its direction differ significantly in different states. To the population of countries North America characterized In other words, the number of people arriving here for long-term or permanent residence is greater than the number of people leaving. In other countries, for example, in Azerbaijan, the opposite ratio is observed. The mechanical movement of the population in Russia is characterized by the fact that 75% of the natural decline is compensated by migration. Russia in terms of its volume is in third place in the world, second only to the United States and Germany. About ¾ of migrants are Russian-speaking population from the CIS countries.
Migration in the broad and narrow sense
In a broad sense, it is considered as any movement of people. In the narrow sense, it refers to their crossing the borders of certain territories, in which there is a change of residence either for a long time or forever.
External and internal migration
Migration can be classified in a number of ways. For example, depending on the nature of the border crossing by the population, the following varieties of it are distinguished.
- Internal migration is the movement of people within one state between economic-geographical or administrative regions, settlements (moving from village to village, from city to city, from village to city, from city to village).
- External migration refers to crossing the borders of a country. It includes immigration and emigration.
Emigration and immigration
Let's talk about the difference between these two similar-sounding concepts. The word "emigration" comes from the Latin term meaning "I move", "I move out". Such a mechanical movement of the population is called moving (forced or voluntary, organized or gravity) to another state for temporary residence for a long period, or for permanent residence. In most cases, it is associated with a change of citizenship.
The word "immigration" also has a Latin origin and is translated as "I move in". Such a mechanical movement of the population is its entry into the country for temporary (long-term) or permanent residence, mainly with a change of citizenship.
Migration in demography is considered an integral part of another process, called From this position, it is often defined precisely as a mechanical movement of the population.
Quantitative indicators of the mechanical movement of the population
When studying migration, like any other phenomena related to demography, it is important to know what their quantitative characteristics are. The mechanical movement of the population is a phenomenon that, in relation to persons living in any territory (city, district, country, etc.), is divided into arrivals from outside and departures of persons outside it.
The balance of migration (net migration, or net migration) is the difference between the number of arrivals and departures for a given period of time. There is another important indicator. This is the amount of migration. It is defined as the sum of arrivals and departures. The volume of migration is also called gross migration, or gross migration.
We can express the number of arrivals and departures in absolute numbers, allowing us to visualize what the overall mechanical movement of the population is. This representation, however, does not reveal the intensity of the process of interest to us. After all, there is a relationship between the total population and the number of departures and arrivals, which also needs to be taken into account. Therefore, the mechanical movement of the population is characterized by a number of relative indicators. Let's talk about the most important of them.
Relative indicators
The intensity of migration is estimated in the form of which are called intensity coefficients. Let's list the main ones.
- The arrival rate (denoted as Kp) is the ratio of the number of arrivals to the population of a particular territory.
- Departure rate (Kv) - the ratio of the number of departed to the population of the territory.
- Relative balance of migration (Кс) - the ratio of the difference between the number of arrivals and departures in the population.
- The general coefficient of mobility (Cr) is the ratio of the sum of departures and arrivals, that is, all migration movements, to the number of inhabitants of a particular territory.
These are the main indicators of the mechanical movement of the population.
Components of a migration
Often, when analyzing migration, it is necessary to break it down into separate components. We briefly describe the most important of them. Migration flows are usually distinguished. These are groups of migrants who have common territories of arrival or departure. You can name one more constituent part, which is often distinguished by researchers. We are talking about migration cohorts, which are a collection of people who are united by a common migration period.
The composition of persons who are included in the mechanical movement of the population is also what has great importance. These persons are characterized by social affiliation, age and gender, nationality, etc. After all, migration mobility among population groups is heterogeneous. The composition of migrants leads to significant changes in the structure of the population in areas of arrival and departure.
Relationship between demographics and migration
The mechanical movement of the population is associated with specific events in a person's life. For example, with the completion or beginning of labor activity, the end of one or another educational institution, military service, etc. The conclusion and termination of marriage, the birth of children and other events related to the demographic cycle are an important part of the life of every person. Therefore, parameters related to demography (marital status, age of children and their number, etc.) have a significant impact on the processes associated with migration. They are one of the important criteria by which groups of the population are distinguished in the study of its mechanical movement.
As mentioned above, different groups are characterized by different mobility. Migration, which is studied in terms of indicators of its intensity within certain categories of the population, is called differential. Her study is important for understanding the differences that mark the mechanical movement of the population of different regions, age, ethnic, socio-professional and other groups. When studying this type of migration, first of all, attention is paid to the differences that exist in age groups. After all, these associations differ significantly in terms of the level of mechanical movement of the population.
Linking migration to gender
The indicators of migratory mobility also differ depending on gender. Among migrants in many states, the predominance of men is revealed. However, this rule is not universal. In some countries, in certain periods, there was an increased proportion of women in migration flows. For example, in Europe in the past, it was the fair sex that dominated the dropouts. Based on this, E. Ravenstein, an English researcher of the 19th century, created the empirical laws of migration. One of them said that women are generally more likely to migrate than men.
Number of children and marital status
The mobility of the population also depends on the number of children in the family and the marital status. However, these dependences are not as one-sided as in the case of the relationship between the intensity of the process of interest to us and age. Not only the number of children can affect migration mobility. In turn, their number can be determined by the degree of mobility. For example, if a family moves frequently, it may put off having children. Therefore, their number is decreasing.
Reproduction intensity
The migration mobility of the population has an impact on the intensity of the flow, and this applies to the reproduction of both closed and open populations. In the latter case, migrations directly change its composition and abundance. Shifts in the age and sex structure are of particular importance. If men predominate among migrants, and if among them there is a high proportion of representatives of the younger groups of people of working age (16-30 years), there is a feminization of the inhabitants of this territory. In addition, this leads to his aging in the areas of departure and to a high number of young men in the places of resettlement.
Mechanical and natural population movement
In conclusion, I would like to note the difference between two important concepts. Mechanical and are not the same thing. Natural movement is reproduction. We briefly talked about its relationship with migration in the article. It is characterized by the level of natural increase, mortality, birth rate, life expectancy of the population. Indicators of natural increase, mortality and birth rate are usually quantitatively expressed in ppm per thousand inhabitants.
| Indicator type | Characteristic | Calculation formula |
| 1. Arrival rate | The number of arrivals per 1000 population on average per year | |
| 2. Dropout rate | The number of dropouts per 1,000 people per year on average |  |
| 3. Overall migration rate | Characterizes the mechanical increase (decrease) of the population |   |
| 4. Coefficient of intensity of migration turnover | Shows the intensity of migration processes |  |
| 5. Migration efficiency ratio | Characterizes the share of mechanical growth in the total turnover of migration |  |
To determine the change in population as a result of natural and mechanical movements, it is calculated population growth rate. It can be calculated in several ways:
1) To general pr \u003d K est. pr + K mech.pr; 2) K total pr = 1000‰;
3) To general pr = 
‰
Based on this coefficient, prospective population from the moment S n after t years according to the formula:
QUESTION
STATISTICS OF COMPOSITION AND NUMBER OF PERSONNEL OF THE ENTERPRISE. PROCEDURE FOR CALCULATION OF THE AVERAGE LIST,
AVERAGE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES, AVERAGE NUMBER OF WORKING PERSONS
payroll number (all employees of the enterprise, accepted even for 1 day)
The average number
turnout number:
The ones that appeared actual
Those who are on a business trip
Those who are employed in other organizations, but are not ordered by their own organization
actual workers (less than or equal to explicit. The number of workers having downtime during the day)
The average number is calculated by:
1) arithmetic mean simple
2) by average chronological
3) according to the arithmetic average, based on the average for each month
4) more precisely according to the formula of the average headcount:
For weekends and holidays, the number of pre-weekend and pre-holiday days is taken.
Since for each day the payroll number is equal to the sum of those who showed up for work and those who did not show up for all reasons, we get the same result by the formula.
That is, the formulas are equivalent.
FORMULA FOR AVERAGE EMPLOYEES:
In the numerator of both formulas, this is the calendar fund of employees' time (man-days).
EMPLOYEE MOVEMENT INDICATORS
The change in the number of employees of the enterprise in connection with the dismissal and hiring is called movement or turnover employees of the enterprise (labor force).
There are the following absolute indicators of labor turnover:
1. receiving turnover- the number of persons enrolled in the study period by the relevant order;
2. dismissal turnover- the number of employees who left work in this organization, whose departure or transfer is registered
by order, as well as those who left due to death;
3. total labor turnover, which is defined as the sum of turnovers for admission and dismissal.
QUESTION 38
STATISTICS OF THE COMPOSITION AND USE OF WORKING TIME
The working time fund is taken into account in man-days, man-hours
- working time calendar= payroll number of employees * number of calendar days
- time sheet= 365- weekends- holidays
- maximum possible working time fund\u003d personnel fund - vacation time
On the basis of the working time accounting data, a working time balance is drawn up, which consists of two parts:
Incoming part (all the time)
Expense: the actual execution of this working time (i.e. no-shows)
The coefficient of performance of the working day is calculated:
K= Average actual work day/ Average set work day
the average installed is calculated through the arithmetic weighted average
Average actual execution of the working day= man-hours worked / man-days worked
The second coefficient is calculated:
including overtime
excluding overtime
The mechanical movement of the population (migration) is characterized by the processes of arrival of the population to a given territory and departure from a given territory. Migration can be internal and external. The internal one involves the movement of the population within the country, region, etc., the external one can act as emigration - leaving the country for permanent residence. There is the concept of "pendulum migration", i.e., the movement of the population during the day from the suburbs to the city and from the city to the suburbs; from one area of the city to another. Pendulum migration is usually associated with labor activity population and is especially characteristic of large cities. Currently, these processes are also associated with the trade in industrial and food products in the markets.
Statistics offers the following indicators:
1) turnover ratio on arrival
2) turnover ratio on disposal
3) intensity of mechanical movement: 
4) balance of mechanical movement: С° = П - В;
5) coefficient of mechanical movement
The concept of multiple regression
Vital rates
Vital movement of the population is the change in population due to births and deaths.
Absolute indicators
1. Number of births for the period (P)
2. Number of deaths for the period (U)
3. Natural increase (decrease) of the population, which is defined as the difference between the number of births and deaths for the period: SP = P - Y
Employment and Unemployment Indicators
The population is divided into active and inactive economics. The active part of the population provides the supply of labor force (sometimes employed and unemployed)
Employed persons include:
Employees of working age
Individuals working for themselves
Family business workers (including unpaid work)
Employers
Members of cooperatives
Collective farmers and persons employed in the household
Employees of retirement age
Working persons younger than working age
The unemployed include persons of both sexes aged 16 and older who, at the time of consideration, did not have a job (another profitable occupation), were looking for work, were ready to start work.
Pensioners, students, students and the disabled are considered unemployed if they were looking for work and were ready to start working.
unemployment rate
The ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of economically active population.
The sum of the employment rate and the unemployment rate is equal to one.
Personnel can be PPP (main activity) NPP (non-main)
PPP happens workers(main and auxiliary) is personnel category, which is directly involved in the creation of material values or the provision of services of an industrial nature, workers are divided into categories depending on the type of work performed, profession, age, form and system of remuneration, length of service, puddle(managers, specialists and others) is a category of personnel that is mainly engaged in intellectual work
52) Categories and indicators of the number of personnel
The indicators of the number of employees are payroll (C), attendance (I), actual (F) and average payroll (SR).
AT payroll includes employees hired for permanent, temporary and seasonal work for a period of one day or more from the date of their admission to work in accordance with labor contracts (contracts). In the payroll of employees for each calendar day, both those who came to work and those employees who are absent for any reason (OT) should be taken into account:
(19.8)
AT attendance they allocate the number of not only those who appeared, but also those who actually started work.
The difference between the number of employees and the number of employees who actually started work is the number of people who are in all-day downtime (TC) (lack of electricity, raw materials, semi-finished products, documentation, etc.):
One of the most important indicators is average payroll of employees, which is defined as the ratio of the sum of the number of employees on the payroll for each calendar day of the reporting month, including holidays (non-working) and days off, to the number of calendar days of the reporting month:
where P 1, P 2, ..., P i - the number of employees for each calendar day; n i - number of calendar days of the reporting month
With the help of the indicator of the average list of employees, other indicators are determined (the coefficient of the number of main workers, indicators of the movement of the enterprise's personnel).
An analytical indicator of the enterprise's work is core worker headcount ratio K cho, which is determined by the formula
where - the average number of auxiliary workers; - the average number of all workers.
53) movement indicators. The labor force balance section, which characterizes the use of labor force, reflects the following indicators:
1. the number of dismissed from work in total, including for reasons of departure:
Ø in the order of transfer to other enterprises;
Ø in connection with the termination of the employment contract at the initiative of the employee (at his own request);
Ø in connection with the termination of the employment contract at the initiative of the administration of the enterprise;
Ø conscription or entry into military service;
Ø other reasons for leaving (for example, by decision of the judiciary).
2. number of employees at the end of the study period.
To characterize the intensity of the movement of the labor force and conduct comparative analysis for enterprises, relative indicators are used, called the coefficients of turnover for admission, retirement, total turnover of the labor force, staff turnover and staff permanence. All these coefficients are calculated as a percentage of the corresponding absolute turnover of the labor force to the average number of employees for the same period T sp 
Indicators of the composition of the population.
The population is an extremely complex aggregate, the individual elements of which have many varying characteristics, therefore, without distributing this aggregate into separate groups or subgroups, it is not possible to get an idea of the composition of the population.
The main method in studying the composition of the population is grouping method.
Here are the main population groups used in the study of this issue.
1. Population grouping by gender, allows you to determine the absolute number of men and women, their share in the total population and the ratio between the two groups.
2. Population grouping by age to identify different age groups.
3. Population grouping by nationality.
4. Population grouping by marital status, allows you to identify people who were married, widowed, divorced.
5. Population grouping by livelihood.
6. Population grouping by level of education
7. Population grouping at the place of residence.
The population is constantly changing under the influence of 2 factors:
1. Natural processes of fertility and mortality.
2. The mechanical movement of the population, which is associated with the movement of the population from one region to another.
The influence of each of these factors is characterized by a system of indicators.
Natural movement is characterized by:
Absolute indicators
1. Number of births (N)
2. Number of deaths (M)
3. Natural increase (NP) N-M
Relative indicators - coefficients that can be divided into 3 groups:
General coefficients: the birth rate shows the average number of births per 1000 population ,death rate shows total number deaths per 1000 people, the coefficient of natural increase. The coefficient of vitality of the population, characterizes the relationship between fertility and mortality.
Special and private coefficients: special fertility rate, shows the number of births per year per 1000 women of childbearing age (15-49). age-specific birth and death rates - characterize the birth and death rates of individual age groups. The calculation is made by the total birth and death rates, only the number of deaths or those born before the age of X is taken as the numerator, and the average annual number of a certain age group is taken as the denominator. Child or infant mortality rate, shows the number of people who died under the age of 1 year per 1000 people born The ratio of the number of children under the age of 1 year to the number of births in that year.
·Standardized coefficients. Used to conduct a comparative analysis of the processes of population reproduction in different regions. Calculate standardized birth and death rates. General birth and death rates are the cause of the variable composition, as they depend on 2 factors:
1. Population level and age structure of the population
2. Age structure of the population
In order to neutralize the influence of the age structure, standardized coefficients are calculated - that is, coefficients with a common structure.
Absolute indicators of mechanical movement: 9
Mortality tables. nine
labor statistics. eleven
Work force. eleven
The number and composition of the labor force. eleven
Example
1) We calculate the actual mortality rates for each region.
2) Calculate standardized mortality rates.
Absolute indicators of mechanical movement:
1. Number of arrivals (P)
2. Number of dropouts (B)
3. Mechanical gain (MP)=P-V
The relative indicators of mechanical movement include three coefficients:
1. Arrival rate
Total population growth (OP)=EP+MP=S K.G. -S N.G.
Mortality tables
Age-specific mortality rates and associated survival rates from one age to another are reflected in the mortality table.
Mortality tables contain detailed information about the age-specific mortality of the population by one-year age groups.
In the subject mortality table, the age groups of the population are located from 0 to the age limit with a one-year interval.
Predicate mortality tables contain the following indicators.
1) Number of people surviving to each age X years l x
This indicator is set per 10,000 or 100,000 people.
2) The number of deaths when x passes to the age of X + 1 years: d x
3) The probability of dying during the coming year of life when moving from age X to age X + 1: q x
4) Probability of surviving until the next year: D x .
This indicator characterizes what proportion of people of each age of X years survive to the age of X + 1 years:
5) Number of people living at the age of x: L x
This indicator reflects the average values of the number of surviving to the age of X years and X + 1 years
For all ages except 1, it can be calculated using the following formula:
6) The number of upcoming person-years of life T x , characterizes the total person-years to be lived by a population of persons from age X to the age limit inclusive.
This intermediate indicator is calculated, which is necessary to calculate the average life expectancy of the population.
7) Average life expectancy of the population:
8) Coefficient of survival (coefficient of displacement)
Mortality tables are compiled for the country as a whole and for individual regions, both for the entire population and separately for urban and rural, for men and women. Tables matter a lot.
| Age, years (x) | l x | d x | q x | px | T x | |
| 0,04060 | 0,95940 | 68,5 | ||||
| 0,00840 | 0,99160 | 70,5 | ||||
| 0,00372 | 0,99628 | 71, | ||||
| 0,00224 | 0,99776 | 69,5 | ||||
| 0,00161 | 0,99839 | 68,5 |
1) Calculate the value of the probability of staying alive (P x) for each age group.
2) Calculate the number of children aged 7 years:
If P x , then we multiply l by P x
According to the textbook:
§1.1 page 16
Composition study
§1.2 page 19
The mechanical movement of the population is the movement (migration) of certain groups of people from one area to another or outside the country. In recent years, in Russia, due to socio-economic instability, international conflicts and local wars, migration processes took on a spontaneous character and became more and more widespread.
The mechanical movement of society has a great influence on the sanitary condition of society. Due to the movement of large masses of people, prerequisites are created for the spread of infectious diseases. Migrants are one of the objects of social work.
Incidence rates
Morbidity is of paramount importance in studying the state of health of the population. Morbidity is studied on the basis of an analysis of medical documentation of outpatient and inpatient medical institutions: cards of patients who have left the hospital; statistical coupons for registration of updated diagnoses; emergency notices of infectious diseases; death certificates, etc. The study of morbidity includes a quantitative (morbidity rate), qualitative (morbidity structure) and individual (frequency rate of diseases transferred per year) assessment.
Distinguish: actual incidence - newly registered diseases in the reporting year; the prevalence of the disease (morbidity) - diseases that have reappeared in a given year and have passed from the previous year at the moment.
Incidence rate:
Number of newly diagnosed patients per year x 1000
Pain index:
Number of patients with this disease registered per year - number
patients removed from the register + number of patients newly registered x 1000
Average annual population;
Pathological affection- a set of diseases and pathological conditions identified by doctors through active medical examinations of the population; expressed statistically as the ratio of the number of diseases currently present to the average population, multiplied by 1000. These are mainly chronic diseases, but acute diseases present at the moment can also be taken into account. In practical public health, this term can be used to define the results of medical examinations of the population. It is calculated as the ratio of the number of diseases detected during a medical examination to the number of examined persons, multiplied by 1000.
Disability rates
Disability is a health disorder with a persistent disorder of body functions, caused by diseases, birth defects, the consequences of injuries that lead to restriction of activity.
Disability and disability of the population are the most important indicators of public health and have not only medical, but also socio-economic significance. According to WHO, every fifth person in the world (19.3%) become disabled due to malnutrition, about 15% became disabled due to bad habits (alcoholism, drug addiction, drug abuse), 15.1% became disabled due to injuries in at home, at work and on the road. On average, people with disabilities make up about 10% of the world's population. In Russia, the average disability rate ranges from 40 to 49 per 10,000 inhabitants.
The causes of primary disability are mainly 4 groups of diseases: diseases of the circulatory system - 27-35% of cases; malignant neoplasms - 23-29%, injuries - about 10%, diseases of the nervous system and sensory organs - 5-7%. Most people (80-90%) become disabled at working age. At the same time, the level of rehabilitation and restoration of working capacity is insignificant (10-12%).
Disability indicators are identified by registering the data of medical and social expertise. They analyze general disability, disability by disability groups, by causes (illness, injury), by individual nosological forms.
It should be noted that the biological potential of human health implies a life expectancy that is much longer than it currently has.
Rice. 1. Dynamics of the level of primary disability of the child population in 2008–2012 (per 10 thousand child population)
Fig.2. The structure of children under the age of 18 initially recognized as disabled by main classes of diseases in 2008–2012 (%)
Rice. 3. Structure of repeated childhood disability by age in 2008–2012 (%)
Rice. 4. The structure of children under the age of 18 repeatedly recognized as disabled by nosological forms in 2008-2012
